Inter-American Centre for Knowledge Development in Vocational Training
Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts. VOLUME 2
The guide emphasises a hands-on approach. It discusses the steps that need to be taken in foresighting and forecasting approaches. In this context, we do not only discuss issues of methodology but also of implementation processes. Skill anticipation will only be successful if it is embedded into a structure in which the results are developed, discussed and used with the various stakeholders and decision-makers. It is not only the development and the instruments of generating forecasting or foresighting results that are important, but also networks and institutions that work with the data, feed back into them, and participate in development of the (initial) discussion or evaluation of results.
Case studies and descriptions of approaches from across the world are included to emphasise the importance of learning from others. They also show how the basic concepts and instruments need continuous adaptation to the particular circumstances of the individual situation in specific countries.
The guide sees several success factors, both for foresights and also for forecasting: successful skills anticipation depends on identifying clear and realistic goals; it should be embedded into an institutional framework which includes identifying and engaging key stakeholders; and to broaden the use and the usefulness of skills anticipation, dissemination of results across various channels should become increasingly important. Tools and instruments should be chosen according to the infrastructure and resources. If the data infrastructure is good, quantitative skill forecast might be considered; qualitative foresights are less dependent on well-established and preferably long-term data collections. Skill anticipation should not be a one-time exercise but a sustained, long-term effort that is repeated regularly to allow both for the development of a methodology of generating the skill forecast or foresight and an understanding of how to use the results.